After last week's +4.5% S&P rip on Iran peace hopes, markets are consolidating. The story this week is oil +10%, gold/silver getting slapped, and a big rotation into critical-minerals / defense / power-infra (USAR, TMRC, VMET, ALAB, AVAV, MP, GEV) and out of gold miners (GDXU β17.6%).
| Ticker | WTD % | Note |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | -0.18% | |
| QQQ | +0.16% | |
| DIA | +0.17% | |
| IWM | +0.63% | |
| VT | -0.60% | |
| VGK | -2.44% | |
| IEMG | -0.96% | |
| TLT | -0.08% | |
| AGG | -0.15% | |
| GLD | -2.27% | |
| SLV | -4.32% | |
| USO | +10.22% | |
| VNQ | -1.12% | |
| BTC | +1.77% | |
| ETH | -0.43% | |
| VIX | +8.81% |
| Ticker | WTD % | |
|---|---|---|
| USAR | +22.56% | |
| TMRC | +20.00% | |
| VMET | +15.87% | |
| ALAB | +13.74% | |
| AVAV | +12.64% | |
| NEXT | +11.77% | |
| MP | +11.49% | |
| LUNR | +10.71% | |
| AMSC | +10.13% | |
| HPE | +9.76% | |
| SOC | +9.76% | |
| DHI | +9.50% | |
| GEV | +8.69% | |
| SEDG | +8.58% | |
| TROX | +8.55% |
| Ticker | WTD % | |
|---|---|---|
| GDXU | -17.60% | |
| NUGT | -10.88% | |
| JNUG | -10.78% | |
| BW | -10.53% | |
| BUR | -8.67% | |
| SA | -8.48% | |
| BWET | -8.32% | |
| NOC | -7.55% | |
| GROY | -7.33% | |
| TSLL | -7.30% | |
| EQX | -7.24% | |
| DGP | -7.11% | |
| DRD | -6.87% | |
| AEM | -6.57% | |
| BWXT | -6.05% |
Every gold name (GDXU, NUGT, JNUG, SA, GROY, DGP, DRD, AEM, EQX) got tagged, and 2x/3x leveraged products amplified the move. GDXU β17.6% this week alone.
NOC down 7.5% on quarter profit softness. TSLL (2x Tesla) hit by Tesla weakness.
| Country ETF | WTD % | |
|---|---|---|
| EWT | +2.39% | |
| ARGT | +0.94% | |
| VNM | +0.32% | |
| EWZ | +0.21% | |
| EWH | +0.13% | |
| EWY | -0.30% | |
| EWM | -0.43% | |
| EWC | -0.50% | |
| ILF | -0.58% | |
| QAT | -1.06% | |
| MCHI | -1.64% | |
| FXI | -1.69% | |
| EWS | -1.80% | |
| EWU | -1.93% | |
| EWI | -2.30% | |
| THD | -2.38% | |
| INDA | -2.46% | |
| EWA | -2.55% | |
| EWG | -2.62% | |
| EIS | -2.64% | |
| EWJ | -2.71% | |
| EWP | -2.77% | |
| EWQ | -2.99% | |
| EPOL | -3.13% | |
| GREK | -3.63% | |
| EPU | -3.70% | |
| UAE | -4.36% | |
| EZA | -4.81% |
Regional roll-up: SPY β0.18% Β· VT β0.60% Β· IEMG β0.96% Β· VGK β2.44% β US is the best house on a bad street. Europe worst. Africa/Gulf worst of EM.
| Tenor | Yield | WTD Ξ |
|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.595% | -0.5 bps |
| 2Y | 3.780% | +6.0 bps |
| 5Y | 3.903% | +6.5 bps |
| 10Y | 4.284% | +3.8 bps |
| 30Y | 4.893% | +0.8 bps |
2s10s: ~50 bps Β· 10s30s: ~61 bps Β· belly pressure (2Yβ5Y +6β7 bps) on hot retail sales. Long end roughly flat. Warsh Fed-chair testimony delivered; DOJ Fed investigation could delay confirmation past May 15 β possible interim chair.
PG (11.2M) Β· TQQQ (9.1M) Β· TSLL (6.1M) Β· MS (5.2M) Β· INTC (4.7M) Β· BIZD (4.7M) Β· UPS (4.1M) Β· NVDA (4.0M) Β· OBDC (3.7M) Β· FNMA (2.8M) Β· NET (2.6M) Β· IREN (2.5M) Β· ASTS (2.4M) Β· MU (2.3M) Β· CLS (2.2M)
Lacy Hunt: oil shock = supply-side recession, not stagflation. Firms can't pass costs β margins shrink β layoffs. Fed will likely tolerate the inflation spike. Long Treasuries rise even as economy weakens.
"Peak stupidity" β Allbirds pivoting to AI data centers = meme 2.0. SLB (buy): ME reconstruction ~$58B (Rystad); 30% SLB revenue from ME. GLD: adding on pullback, cites Einhorn letter on debasement.
Thesis unchanged: EM, commodities, international. No portfolio changes during the war. "We don't need US stocks to go up."
Deep dive on genetic engineering / CRISPR. Thematic β no specific public tickers.
Macro: Retail sales beat (+1.7%), pending home sales beat (+1.5%). Energy only winner Monday; Real Estate worst. Oil snap-back to $91.80 on renewed Mideast shipping threats.
FOMC: Next meeting Wed April 29 β 7 days away. Fed in pre-meeting quiet period, no speakers.
Rate path: Market pricing ~2 cuts by year-end (was ~3 before Monday's data). Probability of April cut has fallen.
Warsh confirmation: Senate Banking vote likely held up pending DOJ Fed investigation. Possible interim Fed chair if past May 15.
| Day | Ticker | Time | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4/22 | TXN | AMC | Industrial/auto semi |
| Wed 4/22 | IBM | AMC | AI / software mix |
| Thu 4/23 | BX | BMO | PC / RE mark |
| Thu 4/23 | LMT | BMO | Defense |
| Thu 4/23 | VICI | AMC | REIT |
| Fri 4/24 | O | BMO | Realty Income |