# 📊 Midweek Pulse — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

**Week-to-date:** Friday 2026-04-17 close → Wednesday 2026-04-22 intraday
**Previous report:** [Monday 2026-04-20 Weekly Recap](monday-2026-04-20.md) · [Wed 2026-04-15](wednesday-2026-04-15.md)
**Prepared for:** Carlos Blanco
**Data:** Yahoo Finance, Gmail (gog), Bahnsen Group, Mauldin Economics, Hoya Capital

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## 🧭 Tape at a glance (WTD)

| Benchmark | WTD % | Note |
|---|---:|---|
| **SPY** — S&P 500 | **−0.18%** | Giving back last week's +4.5% rip |
| **QQQ** — Nasdaq 100 | **+0.16%** | Holding up; 13-day streak ended |
| **DIA** — Dow | **+0.17%** | Flat; UNH/MS earnings support |
| **IWM** — Russell 2000 | **+0.63%** | Small caps leading |
| **VT** — World | −0.60% | US outperforming ex-US |
| **VGK** — Europe | **−2.44%** | Worst major region |
| **IEMG** — EM | −0.96% | |
| **TLT** — Long bonds | −0.08% | Yields drifting up |
| **AGG** — Agg bonds | −0.15% | |
| **GLD** | **−2.27%** | Gold selloff resumes |
| **SLV** | **−4.32%** | Silver hammered |
| **USO** — Oil | **+10.22%** | 🔥 Middle East tension snapback |
| **VNQ** — REITs | −1.12% | |
| **BTC-USD** | +1.77% | |
| **ETH-USD** | −0.43% | |
| **^VIX** | **+8.81%** | Fear creeping back after last week's rally |

**One-liner:** After last week's +4.5% S&P rip on Iran peace hopes, markets are *consolidating*. The story this week is oil (+10%), gold/silver getting slapped, and a big rotation *into* critical-minerals / defense / power-infra names (USAR, TMRC, VMET, ALAB, AVAV, MP, GEV) and *out of* gold miners (GDXU −17.6%, NUGT −10.9%, JNUG −10.8%).

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## 🏆 Portfolio Top 15 WTD

| Ticker | WTD % | Price | Portfolio bucket |
|---|---:|---|---|
| [USAR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USAR) | **+22.56%** | $19.95→$24.45 | Critical minerals |
| [TMRC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TMRC) | **+20.00%** | $0.80→$0.96 | Rare earths |
| [VMET](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VMET) | **+15.87%** | $11.03→$12.78 | Critical minerals |
| [ALAB](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALAB) | **+13.74%** | $174.05→$197.97 | AI infra (Astera Labs) |
| [AVAV](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVAV) | +12.64% | $191.42→$215.61 | Defense / drones |
| [NEXT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NEXT) | +11.77% | $6.84→$7.64 | Nuclear |
| [MP](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MP) | +11.49% | $60.99→$68.00 | Rare earths |
| [LUNR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUNR) | +10.71% | $27.58→$30.53 | Space |
| [AMSC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMSC) | +10.13% | $39.72→$43.74 | Grid |
| [HPE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPE) | +9.76% | $26.44→$29.02 | AI / hybrid cloud |
| [SOC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOC) | +9.76% | $13.11→$14.39 | Energy |
| [DHI](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DHI) | +9.50% | $149.81→$164.04 | Homebuilders |
| [GEV](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GEV) | +8.69% | $1,002→$1,090 | Power gen (GE Vernova) |
| [SEDG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SEDG) | +8.58% | $38.30→$41.58 | Solar |
| [TROX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TROX) | +8.55% | $9.12→$9.90 | Materials |

**Theme:** Critical minerals + rare earths (USAR, TMRC, VMET, MP), AI infra (ALAB, HPE), defense/space (AVAV, LUNR), nuclear/power (NEXT, GEV, AMSC), homebuilders on rate hopes (DHI).

## 💀 Portfolio Bottom 15 WTD

| Ticker | WTD % | Price | Notes |
|---|---:|---|---|
| [GDXU](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GDXU) | **−17.60%** | $260→$215 | 3x gold miners ETF — ugly |
| [NUGT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUGT) | −10.88% | $223→$199 | 2x gold miners |
| [JNUG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNUG) | −10.78% | $242→$216 | 2x jr. gold miners |
| [BW](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BW) | −10.53% | $18.36→$16.43 | Babcock & Wilcox |
| [BUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BUR) | −8.67% | $4.96→$4.53 | |
| [SA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SA) | −8.48% | $33.60→$30.75 | Seabridge Gold |
| [BWET](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BWET) | −8.32% | $148→$136 | Breakwave shipping |
| [NOC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOC) | −7.55% | $665→$615 | Northrop earnings/profit miss |
| [GROY](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GROY) | −7.33% | $3.82→$3.54 | Gold royalty |
| [TSLL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLL) | −7.30% | $13.90→$12.89 | 2x Tesla |
| [EQX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQX) | −7.24% | $15.61→$14.48 | Equinox Gold |
| [DGP](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DGP) | −7.11% | $196→$183 | 2x gold |
| [DRD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DRD) | −6.87% | $32.03→$29.83 | DRDGOLD |
| [AEM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AEM) | −6.57% | $220→$206 | Agnico Eagle |
| [BWXT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BWXT) | −6.05% | $235→$222 | Nuclear tech |

**Theme:** Gold trade *unwinding hard* — every gold name (GDXU, NUGT, JNUG, SA, GROY, DGP, DRD, AEM, EQX) got tagged, and 3x/2x leveraged products amplified it. NOC down 7.5% on Q1 miss. TSLL hit by Tesla softness.

---

## 🌍 Global Country ETFs — WTD

**Winners:** [EWT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWT) Taiwan **+2.39%** · [ARGT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARGT) Argentina **+0.94%** · [VNM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VNM) Vietnam +0.32% · [EWZ](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWZ) Brazil +0.21% · [EWH](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWH) HK +0.13%

**Losers:** [EZA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EZA) South Africa **−4.81%** · [UAE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UAE) **−4.36%** · [EPU](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPU) Peru −3.70% · [GREK](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GREK) Greece −3.63% · [EPOL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPOL) Poland −3.13% · [EWQ](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EWQ) France −2.99%

**Regional roll-up:** SPY −0.18% · VT −0.60% · IEMG −0.96% · VGK **−2.44%** — **US is easily the best house on a bad street this week.** Europe weakest. Middle East oil / dollar strength hurting emerging markets ex-LatAm.

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## 💵 US Treasury Curve — snapshot

| Tenor | Yield | WTD Δ (bps) |
|---|---:|---:|
| 3M | 3.60% | −0.5 |
| 2Y | ~3.78% | **+6** *(per Bahnsen recap 4/21)* |
| 5Y | 3.90% | **+6.5** |
| 10Y | **4.28%** | **+3.8** |
| 30Y | **4.89%** | +0.8 |

**2s10s:** ~50 bps — steepening slightly. **10s30s:** ~61 bps.

**Key moves:** Belly of the curve (2Y–5Y) got hit hardest (+6–7 bps) as retail sales blew past expectations Tuesday (+1.7% vs +1.5%), pushing back the rate-cut narrative. Long end roughly flat. Warsh testified before Senate Banking Committee for Fed chair — markets taking it in stride but DOJ Fed investigation could stretch confirmation past May 15 (possible interim chair).

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## 🔉 Top Volume + 📈 SA Quant Alerts

**Top-volume portfolio names (WTD):** PG (11.2M), TQQQ (9.1M), TSLL (6.1M), MS (5.2M), INTC (4.7M), BIZD (4.7M), UPS (4.1M), NVDA (4.0M), OBDC (3.7M), FNMA (2.8M), NET (2.6M), IREN (2.5M), ASTS (2.4M), MU (2.3M), CLS (2.2M).

**SA Quant Alerts this week (Mon–Wed):**

| Date | Ticker | WTD % | In portfolios? |
|---|---|---:|---|
| 4/22 | [QUBT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QUBT) | +1.15% | — |
| 4/22 | [TSM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM) | +0.44% | ✅ |
| 4/22 | [AREC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AREC) | **+7.76%** | — |
| 4/21 | [CCJ](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CCJ) | −1.12% | ✅ |
| 4/21 | [IDR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IDR) | +1.81% | — |
| 4/21 | [QBTS](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QBTS) | −2.72% | — |
| 4/20 | [CACI](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CACI) | −1.67% | — |

AREC popping after Quant Alert — worth a look. Two alerts on CCJ (Uranium) in two days.

---

## 📰 Newsletter drops (past 4 days)

### 🟦 Bahnsen — FOR CLIENTS ONLY — Weekly (Tue 4/22)
- **MS** jumped **+4.5%** last Wed on massive beat ($3.43 vs $3.02, ROTCE now 27%).
- **PEP** beat on EPS + organic growth +2.6% (first NA volume growth in 4 yrs); reaffirmed 2026 guide; $7.9B dividends planned. Up **+10.6% YTD**.
- **UNH** crushed Q1 ($7.23 vs $6.58); stock +8%; raised guidance.
- **PG** — 3% dividend increase (as expected).
- **SPG** — trimmed in non-taxable accounts after +45% last year / +14% YTD; remains 3.5% target weight.
- **EIX** — researched, passed.
- **META/MSFT** — trimmed $10M Meta (+28% last month), added $10M MSFT (still −15% YTD).
- **Earnings next week Carlos holds:** TXN (tonight), IBM (tonight), BX (Thu pre), LMT (Thu pre).

### 🟦 Bahnsen — Dividend Cafe (Mon 4/20 + Tue 4/21)
- Mon: Dow −293 (−0.59%), S&P −0.63%. Energy +1.31% top sector. Real estate −1.94% bottom.
- Retail sales **+1.7%** vs +1.5% expected (ex-autos +1.9%). Pending home sales +1.5% vs +0.5%.
- **Warsh** Senate Banking testimony: favors rate policy over balance-sheet expansion. Fed chair confirmation messy; possible interim chair post 5/15.
- WTI at **$91.80** (+2.44% Mon).

### 🟠 Mauldin — Over My Shoulder — "Hoisington: Oil Shocks" (Mon 4/20)
Lacy Hunt: energy shock = **supply-side recession**, not stagflation. Firms can't pass costs → margins shrink → layoffs. Weak employment + fragile balance sheets = Fed likely to *tolerate* inflation spike. **Long-term Treasuries yields rise even as economy weakens.** [PDF](https://images.mauldineconomics.com/uploads/20260420_OMS_Q1-Hoisington.pdf)

### 🟠 Mauldin — Clips That Matter (Wed 4/22)
Dementia rates falling age-adjusted in US · Tariffs raise domestic prices too · Retiring Boomers are juicing pay raises · Developed countries cooling on nuclear · AI noticing how we speak. [PDF](https://images.mauldineconomics.com/uploads/CTM_April_22_2026.pdf)

### 🟠 Mauldin — Street Freak (Dillian, Wed 4/22) — "Portfolio Briefing: SLB and GLD"
- **"Peak stupidity"** — Allbirds (BIRD) pivoting from sneakers to AI data centers is meme-stock 2.0.
- **[SLB](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLB) (buy):** Middle East reconstruction = up to **$58B** infrastructure rebuild (Rystad). ~30% of SLB revenue from ME; specializes in repairing energy infra.
- **[GLD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD):** Cites Einhorn's letter warning on debasement; adding on the current pullback (GLD −2.27% WTD).

### 🟠 Mauldin — Strategic Portfolio (Dillian, Mon 4/21) — "13 Days of Pain"
Thesis unchanged: **EM, commodities, international stocks.** No portfolio changes during the war. "We don't need US stocks to go up."

### 🟢 Rational Optimist Society (4/19) — "Playing God" (David Galland)
Deep dive on genetic engineering. No specific public tickers pushed this issue — thematic (CRISPR, cell therapy). Bucket into existing bio/genomics watch.

### 🟣 Hoya Capital Weekly Outlook (4/19) — "A Narrow Straight To Peace"
- S&P **+4.5%** last week (3rd straight +3%+ week), QQQ **+6.1%**, 13-session Nasdaq winning streak — longest in ~13 yrs.
- REIT Index **+4.0%**; [PLD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLD) Prologis **+6%** after strong Q1 + raised guide; [SLG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLG) SL Green **+13%** on op. strength.
- Earnings this week: [O](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/O), [KIM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KIM), **[VICI](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICI)** (portfolio), [APLE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APLE), [MAA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAA), [ADC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADC).
- **FOMC Apr 29** (next Wed) — Fed in quiet period.
- Hoya Hotseat: [GNL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GNL) (Global Net Lease, 820 properties, IG-tenant net-lease).

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## 🏛️ Market commentary + Fed

**Macro:** Retail sales **beat** (+1.7%), pending home sales **beat** (+1.5%). Energy the only winner Monday; Real Estate worst. Oil snap-back to $91.80 on renewed ME shipping threats after the tentative peace last week. Warsh testimony = marginally hawkish on balance-sheet use, dovish-leaning on rate framework.

**Fed / FOMC:**
- **Next meeting: Wednesday, April 29 (7 days away).** Fed is in the [pre-meeting quiet period](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) — no speakers until post-decision.
- Market-implied probability of a **25 bps cut** has *fallen* this week as retail sales data re-heated; pricing now leaning hold / "hawkish hold".
- **Rate path:** market pricing ~2 cuts by year-end (down from ~3 before Monday's data).
- **Warsh confirmation:** Senate vote likely held up pending DOJ Fed investigation → possible interim chair if past **May 15**.

**Bilello Week-in-Charts:** no new drop this Tue/Wed yet; will roll into Saturday recap.

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## 📰 Portfolio stock news — this week

- **[MS](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MS)** beat (+4.5%) — Bahnsen commentary.
- **[UNH](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNH)** Q1 beat + guide raise (+8%).
- **[PEP](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PEP)** beat, NA volume growth first in 4 yrs, +2.6% post-print.
- **[PG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PG)** 3% dividend hike announced.
- **[NOC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOC)** −7.55% WTD on quarter profit softness.
- **[NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA)** −0.60% — high volume, consolidating.
- **[PLD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLD)** Prologis +6% on strong Q1 + raised guide (industrial REIT bellwether).
- **[SPG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPG)** Bahnsen trimmed in non-taxable after +14% YTD.
- **Critical minerals squeeze continues:** USAR +22.6%, TMRC +20%, VMET +15.9%, MP +11.5%. China rare-earth export narrative driving the bid.

### Earnings this week (Carlos's holdings)

| Day | Ticker | Time | Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4/22 | **TXN** | AMC | Industrial/auto semi bellwether |
| Wed 4/22 | **IBM** | AMC | AI / software mix |
| Thu 4/23 | **BX** | BMO | Private credit / real estate mark |
| Thu 4/23 | **LMT** | BMO | Defense; NOC weakness a read-through |
| Thu 4/23 | **VICI** | AMC | REIT |
| Fri 4/24 | **O** | BMO | Realty Income |

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## 📅 Calendar — rest of week

- **Wed 4/22 15:00 ET** — Conference call, PAL Line / Carlos & City National Bank
- **Thu 4/23 13:00 ET** — *Gut Health 2.0: Repair, Rebuild, Optimize Your Microbiome* (webinar)
- **Fri 4/24 10:15 ET** — **Gobundance Boca Mastermind** (April)
- **Sat** — Saturday combined newsletter + podcast recap
- **Next Wed 4/29** — **FOMC decision** (big one)

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## 🎯 Takeaways

1. **The gold unwind is real** — GDXU −17.6%, every leveraged gold name double-digit red. If Carlos is over-weight miners, this is a stress test.
2. **Critical minerals & power infra are running** — rotation out of gold into USAR/TMRC/VMET/MP/GEV/AMSC. Benefits BAHNSEN's AI/power theme and the TOP CBS basket.
3. **Oil back in play** — USO +10.2%. SLB thesis (Dillian) overlays neatly; SOC +9.8% already running.
4. **Rates steepening (belly pressure)** — 5Y +6.5 bps. Hot retail sales pushed back cuts. Watch FOMC 4/29.
5. **Bahnsen book looking good** — MS/UNH/PEP/PG all delivered; Meta trim timed well. TXN/IBM/BX/LMT on deck.
6. **Europe lagging hard** — VGK −2.44%. EM better ex-Africa/Gulf.
7. **FOMC next Wed** — expect chop into the meeting; Warsh confirmation drama is the tail risk.

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*Generated by OpenClaw assistant · Wednesday Apr 22, 2026 9:30 AM ET · [portfolios.md](../../../portfolios.md) · [portfolio-top-cbs.md](../../../portfolio-top-cbs.md) · [portfolio-top-quarantine.md](../../../portfolio-top-quarantine.md)*