# 📊 Wednesday Midweek Pulse — April 8, 2026

## Market Overview
Markets are staging a relief rally after last week's tariff shock selloff. SPY +2.76% WTD, QQQ +3.49%, IWM +4.17%. Tech is leading the bounce with XLK +5.14%. Energy remains the laggard (XLE -2.57%) as crude oil weakness persists. Crypto bouncing hard: BTC +5.67% ($71,102), ETH +6.89% ($2,207). Treasuries catching a bid with yields down across the curve — flight to quality easing as panic subsides.

**Regime signal:** Risk-on rotation after oversold conditions. But this is a technical bounce within a larger uncertainty regime — tariff negotiations, Iran tensions, and FOMC policy path remain unresolved.

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## 🏆 Portfolio WTD Movers

### Top 10 Winners (Carlos's Holdings)
| Ticker | WTD % | Price | Sector |
|--------|-------|-------|--------|
| ASTS | +13.92% | $95.68 | Space/Telecom |
| GOLD (Barrick) | +12.89% | $47.20 | Gold Mining |
| AVGO | +10.27% | $345.67 | Semiconductors |
| GOOGL | +6.46% | $316.61 | Tech |
| RKLB | +6.36% | $69.69 | Space/Defense |
| MAIN | +5.68% | $54.86 | BDC |
| TPVG | +5.61% | $5.18 | Venture Lending |
| FSK | +5.34% | $10.65 | BDC |
| HTGC | +4.98% | $15.28 | BDC |
| AGI (Alamos) | +4.89% | $47.85 | Gold Mining |

### Bottom 10 Laggards (Carlos's Holdings)
| Ticker | WTD % | Price | Sector |
|--------|-------|-------|--------|
| TSLA | -8.82% | $347.64 | EV/Tech |
| OXY | -6.23% | $58.35 | Oil & Gas |
| AXON | -5.68% | $399.53 | Defense Tech |
| PSX | -5.07% | $166.74 | Refining |
| SMR | -4.92% | $9.76 | Nuclear |
| XOM | -4.04% | $154.28 | Oil & Gas |
| COP | -3.38% | $124.04 | Oil & Gas |
| CVX | -3.36% | $190.78 | Oil & Gas |
| PBR | -3.31% | $19.42 | Oil & Gas |
| DVN | -2.72% | $47.27 | Oil & Gas |

**Pattern:** Gold miners ripping, BDCs rallying, energy getting slammed on crude weakness. Tech bouncing from oversold. Space/defense names (ASTS, RKLB) outperforming.

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## 🌍 Global Country ETF Performance (WTD)

### Top 10
| ETF | Country | WTD % |
|-----|---------|-------|
| EWY | South Korea | +9.02% |
| GREK | Greece | +7.81% |
| EZA | South Africa | +6.47% |
| EWT | Taiwan | +6.02% |
| EPOL | Poland | +5.72% |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | +5.24% |
| IEMG | EM ex-China | +5.08% |
| EWX | Small Cap EM | +4.85% |
| EWN | Netherlands | +4.78% |
| EWA | Australia | +4.77% |

### Bottom 5
| ETF | Country | WTD % |
|-----|---------|-------|
| EWS | Singapore | +1.33% |
| EWL | Switzerland | +1.38% |
| EWH | Hong Kong | +1.78% |
| EWC | Canada | +2.36% |
| EWZ | Brazil | +2.76% |

### Key Benchmarks
- SPY (US): +2.76%
- VT (World): +3.26%
- IEMG (EM): +5.08%
- VGK (Europe): +3.47%

**EM leading the bounce.** South Korea (+9%) driven by Samsung/SK Hynix AI chip demand. Greece continues its multi-year run. Taiwan recovering on TSMC resilience. Safe haven markets (Switzerland, Singapore) lagging — less to recover.

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## 📈 US Treasury Curve Snapshot

| Maturity | Yield | WTD Change |
|----------|-------|------------|
| 3-Month | 3.60% | -1 bp |
| 5-Year | 3.89% | -5 bp |
| 10-Year | 4.27% | -5 bp |
| 30-Year | 4.86% | -3 bp |

**2s10s spread:** ~37 bp (normal sloping)
**Curve shape:** Steepening slightly as long end sells less than belly

Yields dropping modestly — flight to quality from tariff/geopolitical uncertainty. 10Y at 4.27% is well off the 4.50%+ panic levels of last week.

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## 🔔 Seeking Alpha Quant Alerts (This Week)

| Date | Ticker | Signal |
|------|--------|--------|
| Apr 8 | SMR | Quant Alert ⚠️ (in portfolio — FOLLOW THE MONEY) |
| Apr 8 | BWET | Quant Alert |
| Apr 7 | PCG | Quant Alert |
| Apr 7 | BWET | Quant Alert (2nd time) |
| Apr 6 | GDS | Quant Alert |

**SMR note:** Already bottom-5 in our quant models (score 9.76). Down -4.92% WTD. Nuclear sector under pressure from broader risk-off. Watch for capitulation.

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## 📰 Newsletter Highlights

### David Bahnsen — Weekly Client Report (Apr 8)
- Core Dividend portfolio **+5.07% Q1** vs S&P -4.9% — **~10% outperformance**
- Key drivers: **Energy overweight** (CVX +37%, UMI +21%, XOM +42% YTD)
- Market rotation into defensives + dividend payers working perfectly
- Bahnsen portfolio philosophy aligns with Carlos's strategy

### David Bahnsen — Dividend Cafe (Apr 7)
- Market resilience despite Iran conflict escalation
- Rising oil prices creating tailwind for energy overweight
- Staying the course on dividend growth strategy

### Mauldin Economics — Clips That Matter (Apr 8)
- Job growth zigzag pattern — labor market mixed signals
- Permanent war premium being priced into futures markets
- Iran conflict could get "even uglier" — energy disruption risk
- Baby Boomers hoarding bedrooms (housing supply constraint)

### Mauldin Economics — Over My Shoulder (Apr 7)
- **Jim Bianco: "The New Rules of Warfare"** — geopolitical risk framework
- One Strait, Many Consequences — Strait of Hormuz analysis
- **SIC 2026 registration confirmed** for Carlos

### Mauldin Economics — Dividend Digest (Apr 8)
- "A Rare Event You Might Have Missed" — Kelly Green

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## 🏛️ Fed & Macro Outlook

- **Next FOMC:** May 6-7, 2026
- **Rate path:** Fed holding at 4.25-4.50%. Markets pricing 2 cuts by December
- **Key risk:** Tariff-driven inflation keeps Fed on hold longer than markets expect
- **Iran/Strait of Hormuz:** Oil supply disruption could force Fed's hand if inflation spikes
- **No Fed speakers of note this week** — quiet period ahead of May FOMC

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## 📅 Rest of Week

- **Thursday Apr 9:** Weekly jobless claims, Tue/Thu market report scheduled
- **Friday Apr 10:** CPI data, Friday Week Close report (BIG one — week + YTD scorecard)
- **Saturday Apr 11:** Newsletter & Podcast Combined Recap
- **Sunday Apr 12:** Barron's Weekly Processing
- **Portfolio price update:** Runs after 5 PM ET (21:00 UTC) daily

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## 💡 Key Takeaways

1. **Relief rally in progress** — but don't chase it. Tariff uncertainty not resolved.
2. **Gold miners are the clear winners** — GOLD (Barrick) +12.89%, portfolio well-positioned.
3. **Energy taking a breather** — crude weakness despite Iran tensions is unusual. Watch for reversal.
4. **BDCs quietly rallying** — MAIN, FSK, HTGC all +5%. Income portfolio thesis intact.
5. **Bahnsen's Q1: +5.07% vs S&P -4.9%** — proof that dividend/energy overweight is the right call.
6. **EQIX at top of quant models (86 score)** — Council recommended adding to real portfolio.
7. **SIC 2026 confirmed** — Carlos registered for Mauldin's Strategic Investment Conference.

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*Report generated April 8, 2026 14:05 UTC / 10:05 AM ET*
*Data: Yahoo Finance, Gmail, Seeking Alpha*