# 📊 Monday Weekly Recap — April 6, 2026

*Week ending April 4, 2026 (shortened week — Good Friday market close April 3)*
*Generated: April 6, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET*

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## 🌍 MARKET OVERVIEW

**The Liberation Day Shock.** President Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariff announcement (10% baseline, 34% China, 20% EU, 24% Japan) rattled global markets, but the market's initial reaction was surprisingly mixed. US equities rallied broadly last week despite the tariff overhang, with the S&P 500 (SPY) up +3.43% and Nasdaq (QQQ) up +3.98%. This may reflect markets pricing the tariffs as a negotiation tactic rather than permanent policy.

**Key Themes This Week:**
- **Tariff Whiplash:** EU's $93B retaliatory tariff package still unresolved. Today (Monday) is the first live session since Good Friday + weekend. Prediction markets pricing ~57.5% chance of a down open.
- **Flight to Gold:** Gold miners surged — GDXU +31%, NUGT +21%, JNUG +20%. Gold itself (GLD) up +3.55%.
- **Oil Holding:** USO +11.05% as Iran war backdrop (downed US drone, power plant ultimatum) keeps geopolitical premium elevated.
- **Energy Sold Off:** Paradoxically, individual energy names fell — XOM -6.0%, CVX -5.8%, LNG -5.3%, EOG -4.6%. Tariff-driven global demand fears outweighing supply risk.
- **Nuclear Correction:** CEG -9.5%, OKLO -4.2% — nuclear trades pulled back on broader risk-off sentiment.
- **Tech Bounced:** META +9.3%, AMD +7.7%, NVDA +5.9%, AMZN +5.2%. Defensive rotation into big tech names.

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## 📈 TOP 10 PERFORMERS — Carlos's Portfolios (Weekly)

| # | Ticker | Company | Weekly Change | Price |
|---|--------|---------|---------------|-------|
| 1 | FNMA | Fannie Mae | +41.98% | $6.90 |
| 2 | GDXU | Gold Miners 3x | +31.38% | $218.02 |
| 3 | IDR | Idaho Strategic Resources | +28.74% | $35.25 |
| 4 | NUGT | Gold Miners 2x | +21.31% | $199.37 |
| 5 | JNUG | Jr Gold Miners 2x | +20.43% | $205.40 |
| 6 | ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | +17.73% | $92.62 |
| 7 | LITE | Lumentum (fiber optics) | +17.67% | $826.88 |
| 8 | INTC | Intel | +16.81% | $50.38 |
| 9 | EQX | Equinox Gold | +15.98% | $14.59 |
| 10 | WGS | GeneDx | +15.96% | $66.20 |

**Theme:** Gold dominance. 4 of the top 10 are gold miners/ETFs. FNMA spike likely driven by GSE privatization speculation + tariff-immune domestic housing thesis.

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## 📉 BOTTOM 10 PERFORMERS — Carlos's Portfolios (Weekly)

| # | Ticker | Company | Weekly Change | Price |
|---|--------|---------|---------------|-------|
| 1 | SOC | Sable Offshore | -16.69% | $15.37 |
| 2 | VG | Vonage/Vintage Wine | -16.49% | $14.64 |
| 3 | CEG | Constellation Energy | -9.51% | $272.82 |
| 4 | CNR | Cornerstone Building | -7.93% | $104.25 |
| 5 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | -7.72% | $34.92 |
| 6 | CIFR | Cipher Mining | -6.73% | $12.82 |
| 7 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | -6.02% | $160.69 |
| 8 | SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | -5.82% | $48.75 |
| 9 | CVX | Chevron | -5.77% | $198.97 |
| 10 | LNG | Cheniere Energy | -5.30% | $281.16 |

**Theme:** Energy and solar hit hardest. Tariff-driven global demand destruction fears. SOC (offshore E&P) and CEG (nuclear) were the biggest casualties.

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## 🌐 TOP 10 GLOBAL STOCKS — Not in Portfolios (Weekly)

| # | Ticker | Company | Weekly Change | Price |
|---|--------|---------|---------------|-------|
| 1 | BA | Boeing | +9.29% | $208.22 |
| 2 | META | Meta Platforms | +9.27% | $574.46 |
| 3 | CRWD | CrowdStrike | +7.99% | $399.12 |
| 4 | GS | Goldman Sachs | +7.49% | $863.04 |
| 5 | UNH | UnitedHealth | +7.04% | $277.26 |
| 6 | LLY | Eli Lilly | +6.53% | $935.58 |
| 7 | NVDA | NVIDIA | +5.89% | $177.39 |
| 8 | NFLX | Netflix | +5.60% | $98.66 |
| 9 | NUE | Nucor Steel | +5.56% | $172.46 |
| 10 | BAC | Bank of America | +5.13% | $49.38 |

**Notable:** NUE (Nucor) is a tariff winner — domestic steel benefits from 25% steel tariffs. BA benefiting from defense spending + domestic manufacturing narrative. Banks rallying on steepening yield curve expectations.

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## 🌍 GLOBAL COUNTRY ETF PERFORMANCE (Weekly)

### Top 10 Countries
| # | ETF | Country | Weekly Change | Price |
|---|-----|---------|---------------|-------|
| 1 | USO | Oil (benchmark) | +11.05% | $137.92 |
| 2 | EPU | Peru | +6.36% | $81.56 |
| 3 | EPOL | Poland | +6.33% | $36.77 |
| 4 | EWI | Italy | +6.28% | $54.31 |
| 5 | EFNL | Finland | +6.12% | $50.25 |
| 6 | GREK | Greece | +6.06% | $65.28 |
| 7 | EZA | South Africa | +5.89% | $68.01 |
| 8 | EWK | Belgium | +5.75% | $24.82 |
| 9 | EWD | Sweden | +5.70% | $49.55 |
| 10 | EWP | Spain | +5.58% | $54.86 |

### Bottom 10 Countries
| # | ETF | Country | Weekly Change | Price |
|---|-----|---------|---------------|-------|
| 1 | EWM | Malaysia | -0.32% | $28.34 |
| 2 | DBA | Agriculture | -0.04% | $27.16 |
| 3 | AGG | US Bonds | +0.70% | $99.23 |
| 4 | TLT | 20yr Treasuries | +1.34% | $86.79 |
| 5 | EPHE | Philippines | +1.40% | $24.68 |
| 6 | EWY | South Korea | +1.56% | $122.87 |
| 7 | EWT | Taiwan | +1.84% | $70.77 |
| 8 | MCHI | China | +1.86% | $55.84 |
| 9 | QAT | Qatar | +1.92% | $18.51 |
| 10 | KWT | Kuwait | +2.21% | $36.37 |

### Key Benchmarks
| ETF | Description | Weekly Change |
|-----|-------------|---------------|
| SPY | S&P 500 (US) | +3.43% |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | +3.98% |
| VT | Total World | +3.97% |
| VGK | Europe | +5.19% |
| IEMG | Emerging Markets | +3.36% |
| GLD | Gold | +3.55% |
| SLV | Silver | +3.70% |
| VNQ | Real Estate | +3.71% |

**Observation:** Europe is outperforming the US significantly — EU tariff fears haven't yet crushed European equities. This may reverse sharply if the $93B retaliatory package goes live. Asian markets (Korea, Taiwan, China) lagging — direct tariff exposure. Gold and silver up strong across the board.

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## 💰 US TREASURY YIELD CURVE

| Maturity | Yield | Weekly Change |
|----------|-------|---------------|
| 3-Month (^IRX) | 3.610% | +0.010% |
| 5-Year (^FVX) | 3.983% | +0.038% |
| 10-Year (^TNX) | 4.333% | +0.022% |
| 30-Year (^TYX) | 4.894% | +0.003% |

**Curve Shape:** Normal — upward sloping. 2s10s spread positive. The tariff shock has NOT caused a flight-to-safety Treasury rally (yet) — yields barely moved. This suggests markets are pricing tariffs as inflationary (pushes yields up) rather than recessionary (would push yields down). This tension will resolve this week.

**Carlos's Position:** $64.3M in Treasuries remains the anchor. With 3-month bills at 3.6% and 10Y at 4.3%, the curve rewards staying intermediate-term.

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## 📨 NEWSLETTER SUMMARIES (Past Week)

### Mauldin Economics
- **"The Energy Tax" (Apr 4, TFTF):** Mauldin frames tariffs as an "energy tax" on the economy. Discusses BLS jobs data skepticism — expects significant downward revisions. Mauldin traveling to West Palm Beach, DC, and NYC.
- **"Two Weeks to Straighten Out the Strait" (Apr 3):** Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation timeline. Two weeks to comply with power plant dismantlement or military action. Oil price implications.
- **"Jobs Data Roundup" (Apr 3, OMS):** Over My Shoulder guest piece analyzing BLS data inconsistencies.
- **"The Dispersion of Opinion" (Apr 2, Macro Advantage):** Range of market opinions widening post-tariff — bulls see negotiation tool, bears see structural damage.
- **"Clips That Matter" (Apr 1):** Weekly chart/data roundup.
- **"Portfolio Briefing: EWZ and SLB" (Apr 1, Street Freak):** Jared Dillian on Brazil ETF (EWZ) and Schlumberger (SLB) — both in Carlos's universe.
- **"ALERT: Up 109% on UTHR — Time for a Free Ride" (Apr 1, Transformative Age):** Taking profits on United Therapeutics.

### David Bahnsen / The Bahnsen Group
- **"FOR CLIENTS ONLY - Weekly Portfolio Holdings Report" (Apr 1):** New equity research team member Lyra Hu announced. Trade details truncated in email — check full report.
- **"Energy Investing With or Without Iran" (Apr 2, Dividend Cafe):** Bahnsen's view: energy is the core driver of economic growth. Evaluates oil price volatility from both tariff and Iran perspectives. Long-term bullish on energy transformation.
- **"Giving Credit Where Private Credit is Due" (Apr 2, Alt Blend):** Private credit thesis — relevant to BDC holdings (ARCC, BXSL, etc.).
- **Dividend Cafe Daily (Mar 31, Apr 1):** Regular market commentary.
- **New Pittsburgh office opening** — firm expansion continues.

### Seeking Alpha Quant Alerts
- **GDS Holdings (Apr 6):** Quant upgrade — Chinese data center play. Not in portfolios.
- **AVAV / AeroVironment (Apr 2):** Quant alert — defense drone maker. IN Carlos's portfolios. Worth monitoring.
- **GDS Holdings (Apr 1):** Second quant alert in a week. Strong signal.
- **IDR / Idaho Strategic Resources (Apr 1):** Quant alert — gold/silver miner. IN Carlos's portfolios. Already up +28.7% this week!

**Cross-Reference:** IDR and AVAV are both in Carlos's portfolios and received Quant alerts. IDR is the #3 performer this week. AVAV is flat (-0.04%) — may be a delayed mover.

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## 🏛️ FED & MONETARY POLICY

**Upcoming FOMC Dates:**
- **May 6-7, 2026** — Next FOMC meeting (~1 month away)
- **June 16-17, 2026** — Summer meeting

**Current Rate:** 4.25-4.50% (Fed Funds Rate)
**Market Expectations:** Tariffs complicate the Fed's path. If tariffs are inflationary → holds/hikes. If tariffs cause demand destruction → cuts. Powell has signaled patience. The April jobs data (out May 2) will be critical.

**Fed Speakers This Week:** Watch for commentary on tariff impacts and inflation expectations. Any dovish pivot would boost equities significantly.

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## 📰 PORTFOLIO STOCK NEWS

**Major developments affecting Carlos's holdings:**

- **CEG (Constellation Energy) -9.5%:** Nuclear pullback despite long-term AI data center demand thesis. Likely profit-taking + broader risk-off. Still up massively YTD.
- **ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) +17.7%:** Strong momentum continues. Space-based cellular broadband narrative gaining traction.
- **INTC (Intel) +16.8%:** Domestic chip manufacturing narrative boosted by tariff environment — "made in America" semiconductor thesis.
- **FNMA (Fannie Mae) +42.0%:** GSE privatization speculation heating up under current administration.
- **AVAV (AeroVironment):** SA Quant Alert. Defense drone maker well-positioned with Iran tensions.
- **IDR (Idaho Strategic Resources) +28.7%:** SA Quant Alert + gold rally. Strong double catalyst.
- **MSTR -4.9%, COIN -6.7%:** Crypto names pulling back. Bitcoin facing tariff-driven risk-off selling.
- **Bahnsen:** New Pittsburgh office. Energy investing thesis aligns with Carlos's FOLLOW THE MONEY portfolio.

**Earnings Calendar (next 2 weeks):**
- Major bank earnings begin mid-April (JPM, BAC, GS, WFC)
- TSLA earnings April 22 — relevant for quant model short evaluation

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## 📊 QUANT MODELS UPDATE

| Model | NAV | Return | Positions | Cash |
|-------|-----|--------|-----------|------|
| Model A | $1,269,845 | +27.0% | 25 long / 5 short | $567K |
| Model B | $1,161,282 | +16.1% | 30 long / 8 short | $449K |

**Top Scores Today:** OXY(85), DBC(84), CF(82), XOM(81), MPC(81)
**No new trades triggered** on today's run — models holding positions through the open.

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## 💤 HEALTH DATA

**Eight Sleep — Last Night (Apr 6):**
- Sleep duration: ~9h (session still recording at pull time)
- Deep: 14% (74.5 min) | REM: 19% (105.5 min) | Light: 67%
- Avg HR: 57.3 bpm | Lowest: 49 bpm
- Respiratory rate: 15.0/min
- Snoring: moderate (medium/heavy bursts in later REM periods)
- No health alerts triggered — all vitals normal.

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## 🔮 WEEK AHEAD

**Monday (Today):** First live trading session post-tariff shock. Watch for gap down, then potential intraday recovery if EU signals willingness to negotiate.
**Tuesday:** Look for more newsletter drops (Bahnsen trade report, Mauldin Clips That Matter).
**Wednesday:** Midweek Pulse report.
**Friday:** Week Close report — this will be the real scorecard of the tariff shock week.

**Key Risk:** EU $93B retaliatory tariff package timing. If enacted, expect 3-5% equity selloff. If negotiations begin, relief rally.

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*Report generated by OpenClaw | Portfolios: 391 tickers across 7 portfolios | Sources: Yahoo Finance, Gmail, Eight Sleep API*