# 📊 The Week in Charts — April 8, 2026
**Source:** Charlie Bilello (charlie@bilello.blog)
**Date:** April 8, 2026
**Blog:** [bilello.blog/2026/the-week-in-charts-4-8-26](https://bilello.blog/2026/the-week-in-charts-4-8-26)
**Video:** [YouTube — What Happens When Volatility Spikes?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk1CcJrS0wA)

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## Key Themes This Week

### 1) What Happens When Volatility Spikes?
- One year ago during tariff turmoil, S&P 500 fell 12% over 4 trading days — biggest crash since March 2020
- VIX closed above 50 at the time
- **Since then: S&P 500 has rallied 38%** — greedy when others were fearful
- This year's VIX high: 31 on March 27 (highest 10% of historical readings)
- Historical pattern: Above-average forward returns for S&P 500 over next 1-5 years after VIX spikes
- Higher the VIX spike → higher odds of strong positive return going forward

### 2) The Longest Correction Since 2022
- S&P 500 low on March 30: down 9.8% from January peak
- Biggest correction since tariff turmoil last April
- **Longest correction (61 days) since 2022 bear market**
- 7.3% decline in first 60 trading days — one of worst starts to a year in history

### 3) A Repeat of 2025?
- Bad start doesn't mean bad finish — 2025 proved this
- S&P 500 rallied 7%+ from March 30 low, now down less than 1% YTD
- At same point in 2025, S&P was down 15% before staging epic comeback to end +18%
- **Driver: Iran war ceasefire hopes** — 14-day ceasefire in place
- Today's 2.5% surge = 5th biggest gain during Trump's second term
- Top 8 days all "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade rallies
  - 2025: tariff reversals drove biggest gains
  - 2026: Iran war reversals driving gains

### 4) The Inflationary Spike Is Already Here
- **Positive scenario:** Ceasefire endures, war ends this month, Strait of Hormuz normalizes by May
- **Negative scenario:** Ceasefire breaks, war escalates, commodity prices spike further
- **March CPI (due Fri 4/10):** Expected 3.25% (Cleveland Fed), up from 2.4% in February
- **Gas prices:** $4.16/gallon — highest since August 2022, 40% increase in 5 weeks (biggest 5-week spike on record)
- **Fertilizer prices:** Up 52% YoY to highest since May 2022 — food price increases coming

### 5) No Chance of a Rate Cut in April
- **Fed meeting April 29:** 98% chance of hold at 3.50-3.75%, 2% chance of HIKE to 3.75-4.00%
- The longer inflation stays above 3%, the more pressure on Fed to consider hiking again

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## Portfolio Implications for Carlos
- **Treasuries ($64.3M):** Rate hike risk is real if CPI comes in hot Friday — watch 10Y yield reaction
- **Energy positions (XOM, CVX, EPD):** Iran war + Strait of Hormuz disruption = tailwind, YTD winners
- **Gold (GLD, miners):** Inflation spike + geopolitical uncertainty = continued support
- **Nuclear/AI infra (VRT, GEV, CEG):** Correction recovery underway, VRT +60% YTD leading
- **Crypto (BTC -20% YTD):** Risk-off environment still pressuring, but VIX pattern suggests recovery ahead
- **Ocala real estate:** Rising gas/food prices could pressure tenant affordability — monitor collections

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## Also This Week from Bilello
- 📹 [10 Ways to Save on Your Taxes — Signal or Noise Ep 70](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdQTeWGf7vg) ([Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4E5xNSrwq27lw3aYsJOQAY) / [Apple](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/10-ways-to-save-on-your-taxes/id1691155499?i=1000758873756))

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*Archived from Gmail: charlie@bilello.blog → charlybls@gmail.com*
*Next issue expected: ~April 15, 2026*