# Saturday Newsletter & Podcast Recap β€” March 28, 2026 ## πŸ“° MAULDIN ECONOMICS (7 emails this week) ### πŸ”₯ TFTF β€” "Meet the Real Tony Starks" (Mar 28) Mauldin spent two days in El Segundo, California with members of his Inner Circle, visiting four technology companies and listening to six CEO presentations. His co-founders of the Rational Optimist Society β€” Stephen McBride and Dan Steinhart β€” arranged the tours. Mauldin came away comparing these young founders to Edison, Tesla, Musk, Brin, and Karp. He says we're living in "months when decades happen." The recurring theme across every company: if your suppliers can't meet your schedules, start manufacturing your own supply. Every factory had an enormous American flag, and they got bigger as the tour progressed. Mauldin notes that Elon Musk's biggest lasting impact may not be SpaceX or Tesla themselves, but the hundreds of people inspired to start their own world-changing companies. **MACRO BACKDROP:** Mauldin opens by noting the overwhelming number of topics to cover. Quick summary: inflation likely to continue rising; economy likely to weaken; labor market getting softer and more bifurcated; energy prices in flux. On Iran: the Trump administration initially thought the war would take 5-6 weeks β€” we're now in week 3. Iranian inflation is 47.5% annually with food prices up over 100%. The newly issued 10 million rial note (largest in Iranian history) is worth about $7. Long lines at banks when released. Military hasn't been paid in two months, though the IRGC is still getting money β€” "not the best context for military cohesion." The US will likely try to take Kharg Island to disrupt Iran's cash flow, and that may have already started by the time readers see this. --- **🏭 COMPANY 1: RANGEVIEW** (rangeview.com) *CEO: Cameron Schiller, 25 | CTO: Aeden Gasser-Brennan | Status: PRIVATE* Rangeview is a five-year-old manufacturing startup operating a "cyber foundry" β€” a robotics-driven, digitally integrated factory that reinvents investment casting for aerospace and defense. It transforms digital CAD files into precision-cast metal parts using a proprietary process combining 3D-printed ceramic molds with advanced material science, enabling a 12-day turnaround from order to pour-ready mold β€” dramatically faster than industry norms. Significant funding from major name-brand VCs. Customers include US military programs, major aerospace OEMs, and defense technology companies β€” including some of the other companies on the tour (Valar Atomics sources precision parts from them). Cameron's backstory: Dropped out of college in his first semester, went to China, eventually won a world robotics championship. Learned about manufacturing and realized the US was falling behind. Returned to El Segundo with a personal mission to change how manufacturing is done in America. When asked why El Segundo, he pointed through the window to a large gray building a few blocks away β€” "That is where SpaceX started." One of his early hires came to the Inner Circle dinner β€” the "old man" of the group at mid-30s. He described Cameron as "a human reality distortion field." Mauldin's take: "This kid is going to be Alex Karp in 10-15 years, and maybe even another Elon Musk." --- **πŸš€ COMPANY 2: VARDA SPACE INDUSTRIES** (varda.com) *CTO: Nicholas Cialdella | Status: PRIVATE* Varda designs, builds, and flies autonomous spacecraft that manufacture pharmaceutical products in microgravity and return them to Earth. The company operates the world's first commercial microgravity manufacturing and reentry platform. How it works: Autonomous spacecraft are sent to low Earth orbit, where robotic systems crystallize pharmaceutical compounds in microgravity. The key insight is that oil and water don't mix due to gravity β€” remove gravity and you get even distribution, enabling proper crystallization. This allows creation of life-changing drugs that literally cannot be manufactured on Earth. A reentry capsule then returns the products to Earth via parachute landing at Mach 25+. Many payloads can be measured in grams β€” but as context, all the actual mRNA vaccines used during COVID could be contained in two 1-gallon milk jugs. Second revenue stream: hypersonic reentry testing. Because capsules reenter at Mach 25+, the company provides the US military with a low-cost, routine platform for testing materials and sensors in real hypersonic flight conditions. The vision: Build a space manufacturing facility, with satellites becoming "space taxis" (Mauldin's term) bringing products back to Earth. Big Pharma and the Defense Department are lining up. The complexity and precision of their production facility is "overwhelming" β€” a constant theme across all four companies. --- **β˜€οΈ COMPANY 3: REFLECT ORBITAL** (reflectorbital.com) *CEO: Ben Nowack, 28 (former SpaceX engineer) | CTO: Tristan Semmelhack (former Zipline) | Founded: Oct 2021 | Status: PRIVATE* Reflect Orbital designs and manufactures satellites with large deployable mirrors that reflect sunlight onto Earth's surface after dark. The thesis: Solar panels only produce power during daylight, yet peak electricity demand often comes in the evening. Reflect extends effective solar generation hours without battery storage, new land, or additional ground infrastructure. The tech: A constellation of satellites carrying large, ultra-thin-film reflectors (28x thinner than a human hair, layered materials in nanometer "sheets") that redirect sunlight from Earth's dayside to targeted nightside locations. Each satellite is roughly a 2ft x 3ft cube. They use ~6-inch hollow diameter booms to deploy three "sails" per satellite β€” the booms are remarkably light but incredibly strong. Brightness is adjustable: one satellite = moonlight intensity (full moon on a 2-mile radius). Multiple satellites converging = significantly brighter, essentially noon at midnight. If that area is a solar farm, they're producing electricity at midnight. Reflect gets 80% of the revenue. Ben Nowack's backstory: Was literally building fusion reactors in high school (his dad was upset when he used 1 megawatt of electricity firing it up). Gave up on creating antimatter and a half-dozen other projects. "I didn't make good grades in college because I was building things." Launched the company in his garage at 23. Funding: Sequoia Capital's first space investment since SpaceX in 2010. Just closed a large round at a higher valuation. When asked if it was a billion-dollar valuation yet: "Not now, but when we have a satellite in orbit and working? It will be multiple billions." Revenue streams: Solar power electricity (80% rev share), search and rescue lighting, event lighting ($5K/hr per satellite hour). When they announced the possibility, they got 200,000+ emails asking when they could schedule an event. First satellite goes to orbit in October 2026. Mauldin's take: "This version of Tony Starks is going to create 100X for a lot of early investors." He adds: "In my opinion, if they can pull the vision off (and I think they will), this is easily a multi-hundred-billion-dollar enterprise." Also mentioned: Mauldin's friend Tom Markusic is building a hydrogen-fueled airplane that will go into orbit, deploy multiple satellites, and land 90 minutes later β€” cutting launch costs even further. Spaceport potentially in Puerto Rico. --- **βš›οΈ COMPANY 4: VALAR ATOMICS** (valaratomics.com) *CEO: Isaiah Taylor | Status: PRIVATE* Valar builds small, modular, high-temperature, gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) designed for mass production. Rather than selling electricity to utilities, Valar produces hydrogen, synthetic fuels, data center power, and industrial process heat from centralized "gigasites" hosting hundreds of reactors at a single location. The model mirrors SpaceX's Starlink approach: sell a simple commodity (fuel) made by complex technology (reactors), and bypass the need to explain nuclear engineering to every buyer. The flagship reactor β€” the Ward250 (named after Isaiah's grandfather Ward Schaap) β€” is a 5MW helium-cooled, graphite-moderated microreactor fueled by TRISO pellets. It's compact enough to fit inside a C-17 cargo aircraft and modular enough for factory-line production. Isaiah's backstory: Knew he wanted to build smaller, safer, modular nuclear reactors at age 19. His grandfather Ward Schaap worked with Enrico Fermi at the University of Chicago where they created the first controlled nuclear fission reaction in 1942, and then went on to work at Oak Ridge. Isaiah founded the company at 24, raised money before hiring anyone. Isaiah methodically walked the group through the history of nuclear power and technology. Mauldin says he "learned more in one hour than I have in my entire life of reading." Engineering journey: Assumed his first design would fail β€” ironically, it worked the first time but failed on the second attempt. The metal housing bonded with the metal chain that moved the control tubes. Redesigned. Failed again. Got it right on the 38th attempt. Current version should last at least 20 years. **The first reactor turns on July 4, 2026 in Utah.** The reactor has already been shipped from El Segundo (California passed a proposition forbidding nuclear reactors). When Mauldin asked if they were already testing it, Isaiah gave "a smile, almost a smirk" β€” it wasn't a "yes" but it wasn't a "no." Mauldin: "Dollars to doughnuts it will work on July 4." After that: build more modules and crank a factory up. Mauldin suggested Texas and offered to introduce Isaiah to Governor Abbott. --- **OTHER CEO PRESENTATIONS:** πŸ“‘ **Picogrid** (picogrid.com) β€” CEO Zane Mountcastle "Astounded us with his breadth of knowledge about the entire defense ecosystem." Picogrid allows scores of different technologies in the defense world to talk with each other. Example: if you're Ukrainian with 10 different drone systems, you want them all to communicate β€” Picogrid allows that, plus control in the field. Works for missile systems and other platforms too. ⛏️ **Durin** (durin.com) β€” CEO Ted Feldmann, 22 Mining technology startup aiming to build the world's first fully-automated core drilling rig for mineral exploration. Founded April 2024, initial raise $3.4M from notable VCs. The problem: discovering a mine costs $200M+ in the western world, 75% of which is drilling. Half the US mining industry is retiring during the 2020s. Drilling rates have tripled in 20 years. Rigs sit idle simply because there isn't enough skilled labor. Durin automates the process: reducing operators from 3-4 to 1-2 within 18 months, then 0-1. Real-time data collection lets companies characterize deposits earlier than ever. 🎯 **CX2** (cx2.com) β€” CEO Nathan Mintz, mid-30s (3rd startup) Backed by Andreessen Horowitz. Develops technology that doesn't just track a drone β€” it determines where it came from, then launches a drone to take out the operator. "Shoot the archer, not the arrow." Recently interviewed by Joe Lonsdale. Will be featured at Mauldin's SIC 2026 conference. --- **MAULDIN'S CLOSING THOUGHTS:** Mauldin plugs the Rational Optimist Society newsletter (free, by Stephen McBride). He'll attend a longevity conference in West Palm Beach mid-April, help inaugurate the Lifespan Edge clinic there, then DC and New York for meetings. SIC conference in early May, then Boston for another Inner Circle gathering in early June. He's "extraordinarily pleased" with the Inner Circle gatherings β€” the real value is the network of relationships being created. --- ### πŸ“Š Ed D'Agostino β€” "Global Liquidity, Debt & the Four Horsemen" (Mar 27) Interview with Michael Howell (GL Indexes, Capital Wars). BEARISH SIGNAL: - **25% potential drop in global liquidity** ahead - 80% of all primary transactions globally are now refinancing existing debt - 77% of all global lending is collateral-based β†’ "debt-liquidity nexus" - **Four Horsemen of the Liquidity Apocalypse:** 1. Central banks tightening (inflation rising from commodity prices) 2. Oil prices spiking (absorbs liquidity via working capital) 3. US dollar strengthening (global liquidity headwind) 4. Bond market volatility (MOVE Index surging β†’ bigger haircuts on collateral) - Global liquidity cycle (65-month frequency) peaked end of Q3 2025, now heading DOWN - US market in late "speculation" phase β†’ "turbulence" may be next - **"Is the bull market over? I think it probably is."** - Safe havens: GOLD + SILVER as core holdings (not trades) + front-end yield curve + cash - Gold-to-oil ratio implies oil could hit $250/barrel - PBOC printing aggressively β€” Shanghai now marginal gold price setter (not London) - Yen carry trade may be less important than market thinks --- ### πŸ“‹ Clips That Matter (Mar 25) - Energy stocks soaring, consumer stocks lagging - Mag-7 off to terrible start this year - Hormuz Strait ship traffic slowed dramatically - Markets now price Fed RATE HIKE more likely than cut - Wage growth slowing but still above pre-COVID ### Other Mauldin Emails - **Street Freak** β€” Portfolio Briefing: AEP, EWZ, GLD (Mar 25) - **Over My Shoulder** β€” Bruce Mehlman: "The Art of War in the 21st Century" (Mar 26) - **Transformative Age** β€” "The Resistant Potato Starch Biohack" (Mar 26) - **Kelly Green** β€” "Stranger In a Strange Land" Dividend Digest (Mar 25) - **Kelly Green** β€” Live Portfolio Walkthrough recording available (Mar 27) - **VIP Week in Review** (Mar 27) - **SIC 2026** β€” "The Show Must Go On" (Mar 28) --- ## πŸ“° DAVID BAHNSEN / THE BAHNSEN GROUP (6 emails this week) ### πŸ”΄ "FOR CLIENTS ONLY" β€” Weekly Portfolio Holdings Report (Mar 25) **NEW POSITION: ACN (Accenture) β€” $57M total at blended $201.89** - Half Monday Mar 24 at $199.36 - Half Thursday Mar 27 at $204.72 - Intentional split to neutralize earnings timing risk - Stock rallied 4%+ after earnings β€” bookings at all-time high, large deal momentum accelerating - Accenture sees AI as growth tailwind, not impediment **Other portfolio news:** - **GIS** (General Mills) β€” Bottom-line miss, small top-line beat. International sales & pet division grew. N.Am retail down. Selling unprofitable Brazil business. Focus 2026: protein/fiber products + price. - **SPG** (Simon Property Group) β€” Founder David Simon passed away at 64 (cancer). Eli Simon succeeding as CEO. Succession plan solid. 4,500% return since IPO. RIP. - **GILD** (Gilead Sciences) β€” Acquired Ouro Medicines for $1.67B cash (+$500M milestones). Galapagos pays half, gets 20-23% royalty. Strategic: autoimmune disease commercialization access. **Analyst activity:** - HSBC β†’ CVX Buy ($215 PT) - TD Cowen β†’ ACN Buy ($282 PT) - Goldman β†’ GIS Neutral ($40 PT) - RBC β†’ GIS Outperform ($55 PT) **Upcoming:** FactSet (FDS) earnings before market Tuesday Mar 31 ### Friday Dividend Cafe β€” "Can the Bull Market Continue?" (Mar 27) Bahnsen breaks down labor, financial conditions, and profits. Questioned "private credit contagion" narrative. ### Daily Dividend Cafes (Mon-Thu) - Monday Mar 23 - Tuesday Mar 24 - Wednesday Mar 25 - Thursday Mar 26 ### March 2026 Bahnsen Trade Summary | Date | Action | Ticker | Price | Amount | Portfolio | |------|--------|--------|-------|--------|-----------| | ~Mar 3 | ADD | MC | $62.11 | $25M | Core Dividend | | Mar 3 | TRIM | LMT | $674.26 | Small | Core Dividend | | ~Mar 3 | ADD | VITL | $21.53 | $6M | Growth Enhancement | | Mar 3 | ADD | MSFT | β€” | β€” | Growth Enhancement | | ~Mar 3 | SELL (partial) | GRPM | β€” | β€” | Growth Enhancement | | ~Mar 10 | ADD | BX | $115.81 | $39M | Core Dividend | | Mar 24 | ADD (half 1) | ACN | $199.36 | $28.5M | Core Dividend | | Mar 27 | ADD (half 2) | ACN | $204.72 | $28.5M | Core Dividend | **Total deployed March: ~$155M+ across 5 names** **Net new positions: ACN, MSFT, VITL** **Increased: BX (3%β†’4%), MC** **Trimmed: LMT** **Passed on: NSRGY (NestlΓ©)** --- ## πŸŽ™οΈ ALL-IN PODCAST (5 episodes this week: Mar 17-27) ### πŸ† E265 β€” "Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits" (Mar 27, 80 min) - Anthropic on a GENERATIONAL RUN β€” threatening OpenAI in enterprise AI - OpenAI debate: "getting focused or panic mode?" β€” Chamath says pick consumer vs enterprise lane - AI valuations, moats & disruption β€” who survives? - Meta loses TWO landmark child safety lawsuits - David Sacks + David Friedberg join Trump's PCAST (science/tech advisory council) - Portfolio overlap: META, GOOGL ### πŸ”₯ Jensen Huang Interview from GTC (Mar 19, SPECIAL) - NVIDIA evolved from GPU company to "AI FACTORY company" - Inference computing β†’ 1 BILLION-X increase (not 1000x) - $50B Nvidia factories: "Even if competitor chips were FREE, they wouldn't be cheap enough" - Physical AI = $50 TRILLION industry opportunity - Digital Biology = 2-5 years from "ChatGPT moment" - Humanoid robots = 3-5 years from real products - Employee productivity: $500K engineer should consume $250K in AI tokens - "Every software company will be a VAR of Anthropic's technology" - Biggest national security threat: STALLING AI adoption out of fear - Portfolio overlap: NVDA, ARM, CRWV, SMCI, IONQ, RGTI ### E264 β€” GTC Live: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, Iris Energy (Mar 24) - CoreWeave journey: GPU β†’ crypto mining β†’ AI infrastructure - Perplexity AI evolution + future OS vision - Mistral's NVIDIA partnership + synthetic data - Iris Energy: renewable data centers + nuclear energy computing - Portfolio overlap: CRWV ### E263 β€” Matt Mahan on California Politics (Mar 23) - CA government dysfunction, homelessness, housing, insurance crisis - Public employee retirement liabilities, energy policy ### E262 β€” Senator John Fetterman (Mar 18) - Save America Act, bipartisanship, national debt, anti-AI sentiment --- ## ⛏️ KATUSA RESEARCH No new Katusa email this week. Last issue: March 4, 2026 β€” "A Double-Shot of Gold Speculations" (monthly frequency). --- ## 🌍 RATIONAL OPTIMIST SOCIETY No new ROS email this week. Last issue: March 22, 2026 β€” "The 1 thing that terrifies an optimist" by Stephen McBride (already processed). Note: Mauldin mentions the Rational Optimist Society extensively in this week's TFTF β€” McBride and Steinhart co-organized the El Segundo Inner Circle tours. Mauldin plugs the newsletter as "my personal favorite" and recommends subscribing. --- ## 🎯 KEY THEMES & PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS ### πŸ“± SOCIAL MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS (Twitter/X) **@KatusaResearch / @MarinKatusa** (most active this week): - "$4.2 Billion Left Gold Last Week" β€” GLD recorded the single LARGEST weekly outflow in its 20-year history. Someone selling the ETF, someone else taking physical delivery of the metal (Mar 7) - "Gold fell 5% in the two weeks after the largest oil supply shock in recorded history. The dollar absorbed the fear. That tells you something important about who actually controls the gold price right now. And it isn't the buyers." - "Every major gold bull market has had brutal mid-cycle corrections that felt like the end. We are waiting for the gold price to find a base. This is likely a process that takes weeks to months, not days." - "PaxGold trading at $5,429" β€” tracking crypto-gold prices - Teasing the "Fourth Major" in gold royalties β€” hinting at a company with record revenue (+500%), profits up 10x, run by 8 people, 75% owned by Africa's largest gold miner + a $186B company buying $1B of gold monthly. Likely a Katusa portfolio pick. - Canada announced 30 new critical minerals partnerships worth $12.1B in a single day β€” deals with Apple, Panasonic, Siemens, Rio Tinto, 12 allied nations **@DavidBahnsen:** - Active posting about bull market thesis, dividend growth, and Accenture position - Promoting Friday Dividend Cafe "Can the Bull Market Continue?" **@JohnFMauldin:** - Promoting TFTF "Meet the Real Tony Starks" and Inner Circle El Segundo tour - SIC 2026 conference promotion **@DisruptionHedge (Stephen McBride):** - Chief storyteller at Rational Optimist Society - Recent substack: "Everything's AI" β€” nuclear re-entering the chat, SpaceX Mafia effect, robotaxis, personal AI tutors **All-In Hosts (@chamath, @Jason, @DavidSacks, @friedberg):** - Sacks and Friedberg announced joining Trump's PCAST (science/tech advisory council) - Discussed on E265 β€” major signal for tech industry influence in policy *Note: X API credits depleted this week; social media scan done via web search. Will improve with API credit refresh.* --- ## 🎯 KEY THEMES & PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS (Analysis) **Bullish signals:** - Nuclear/SMR: Valar Atomics July 4 reactor + Iris Energy nuclear data centers (FTM uranium thesis βœ…) - Gold/Silver: Howell says core holding, not trade. PBOC printing. Oil could hit $250 (GOLD portfolio βœ…) - Energy: Stocks soaring, Iran war disrupting Hormuz, oil supply at risk - AI infrastructure: Jensen says spending accelerating to $50T (NVDA, ARM, CRWV βœ…) - Defense/Aerospace: Rangeview, CX2, Picogrid all growing fast (LMT βœ…) **Bearish signals:** - Global liquidity potentially dropping 25% - Bull market may be ending per Howell's cycle analysis - Mag-7 terrible start to year - Fed rate HIKE now priced more likely than cut - META facing regulatory headwinds from child safety rulings **Bahnsen positioning:** Buying quality on weakness (ACN, BX, MC), trimming winners (LMT), adding growth selectively (MSFT, VITL). ~$155M deployed in March.