# 📊 Monday Weekly Recap — March 30, 2026
## Week of March 23–27, 2026

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## 🎯 Market Commentary

**A brutal week for risk assets.** The S&P 500 (SPY) fell **-3.25%**, Nasdaq (QQQ) dropped **-4.32%**, and the Dow (DIA) lost **-2.29%**. Small caps (IWM) held up slightly better at **-1.76%**, but nowhere was truly safe except **commodities and gold**.

**What drove it:**
- **Oil surge** — WTI crude exploded higher with USO up **+12.34%** as Iran tensions re-escalated. Energy was the ONLY major sector in the green.
- **Rates marched higher** — The 10Y yield climbed from 4.33% to 4.44% (+11bp), and the 30Y from 4.91% to 4.98%. Higher-for-longer narrative fully alive.
- **Tech destruction** — NVDA -4.62%, META -6.14%, AMZN -5.14%, AAPL -1.07%. AppLovin (APP) cratered -16.94%. Crypto-adjacent names (COIN -19.68%, CONY -18.96%) got smashed.
- **Gold held firm** — GLD +2.64%, SLV +1.55% as safe-haven bid persisted despite profit-taking mid-week.
- **VIX spike** — Volatility index surged +10.54% to 29.79, signaling elevated fear.

**Global picture:** Europe (VGK -1.96%) outperformed the US. Emerging Markets (IEMG -3.69%) were weak, led down by South Korea (EWY -9.59%) and India (INDA -3.80%). Vietnam (+1.83%) and Mexico (+1.42%) were rare bright spots.

**Bottom line:** Energy/commodities are the trade. Tech is getting crushed by rates + geopolitics. The market wants to reprice risk with oil above $90 and the 10Y approaching 4.50%.

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## 🏆 TOP 10 BEST PERFORMERS (All 7 Portfolios)

| Rank | Ticker | Company | Weekly % | Price | Portfolio |
|------|--------|---------|----------|-------|-----------|
| 1 | CHGG | Chegg | +19.30% | $0.68 | QUARANTINE |
| 2 | SOC | Sable Offshore | +16.70% | $18.45 | TOP CBS |
| 3 | CF | CF Industries | +13.54% | $136.45 | KATUSA |
| 4 | NEXT | NextDecade | +12.76% | $8.13 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 5 | VG | Venture Global | +10.95% | $17.53 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 6 | SEDG | SolarEdge | +10.76% | $51.76 | QUARANTINE |
| 7 | CNR | Core Natural Resources | +9.77% | $113.23 | TOP CBS |
| 8 | HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise | +7.26% | $23.94 | QUARANTINE |
| 9 | VLO | Valero Energy | +7.13% | $254.32 | TOP CBS |
| 10 | ALB | Albemarle | +7.10% | $179.45 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |

**Theme:** Energy (SOC, CF, NEXT, VG, VLO), resources (CNR, ALB), and beaten-down names bouncing (CHGG, SEDG). The oil/gas complex dominated.

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## 📉 BOTTOM 10 WORST PERFORMERS (All 7 Portfolios)

| Rank | Ticker | Company | Weekly % | Price | Portfolio |
|------|--------|---------|----------|-------|-----------|
| 1 | BUR | Burford Capital | -46.99% | $4.14 | TOP CBS |
| 2 | WYFI | WhiteFiber | -25.19% | $10.78 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3 | WGS | GeneDx Holdings | -20.86% | $57.09 | TOP CBS |
| 4 | COIN | Coinbase | -19.68% | $161.14 | QUARANTINE |
| 5 | CONY | YieldMax COIN | -18.96% | $24.53 | QUARANTINE |
| 6 | ZETA | Zeta Global | -17.61% | $14.55 | TOP CBS |
| 7 | GLXY | Galaxy Digital | -17.05% | $18.00 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 8 | APP | AppLovin | -16.94% | $381.20 | TOP CBS |
| 9 | IONQ | IonQ | -16.91% | $27.51 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 10 | IREN | IREN Limited | -16.77% | $35.09 | FOLLOW THE MONEY |

**Theme:** Crypto/digital (COIN, CONY, GLXY), quantum/speculative tech (IONQ, QBTS), and momentum names giving back gains (APP, WGS, ZETA). BUR -47% is a standout — likely litigation/legal development.

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## 🌍 Global Country ETF Performance (Weekly)

### Top 10
| Rank | ETF | Country | Weekly % |
|------|-----|---------|----------|
| 1 | VNM | Vietnam | +1.83% |
| 2 | EWW | Mexico | +1.42% |
| 3 | NORW | Norway | +1.01% |
| 4 | COLO | Colombia | +0.85% |
| 5 | ARGT | Argentina | +0.18% |
| 6 | EDEN | Denmark | +0.14% |
| 7 | KSA | Saudi Arabia | +0.13% |
| 8 | ECH | Chile | +0.08% |
| 9 | EWH | Hong Kong | +0.00% |
| 10 | EZA | South Africa | -0.08% |

### Bottom 10
| Rank | ETF | Country | Weekly % |
|------|-----|---------|----------|
| 1 | EWY | South Korea | -9.59% |
| 2 | EIS | Israel | -5.49% |
| 3 | UAE | UAE | -4.30% |
| 4 | GREK | Greece | -4.25% |
| 5 | INDA | India | -3.80% |
| 6 | EWT | Taiwan | -3.70% |
| 7 | IEMG | Emerging Markets | -3.69% |
| 8 | ENZL | New Zealand | -3.54% |
| 9 | TUR | Turkey | -3.51% |
| 10 | EWM | Malaysia | -3.43% |

### Key Comparison
| Index | Weekly % |
|-------|----------|
| SPY (US) | -3.25% |
| VT (World) | -2.87% |
| VGK (Europe) | -1.96% |
| IEMG (Emerging) | -3.69% |

**Europe outperformed the US this week.** LatAm (Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Argentina) held up well. Asia got hit hard — Korea -9.59% (Samsung/tech weakness), Taiwan -3.70% (TSMC drag), India -3.80%. Norway's oil exposure helped it.

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## 📈 US Treasury Yield Curve

### March 27, 2026 Closing Yields (Official Treasury.gov Data)
| Maturity | Yield | Weekly Chg (vs 3/20) | Monthly Chg (vs 3/2) |
|----------|-------|---------------------|---------------------|
| 1 Mo | 3.74% | +1bp | 0bp |
| 3 Mo | 3.73% | -1bp | +1bp |
| 6 Mo | 3.75% | -4bp | +7bp |
| 1 Yr | 3.77% | -3bp | +23bp |
| 2 Yr | 3.88% | 0bp | +41bp |
| 3 Yr | 3.94% | +4bp | +45bp |
| 5 Yr | 4.06% | +5bp | +44bp |
| 7 Yr | 4.25% | +5bp | +43bp |
| 10 Yr | 4.44% | +5bp | +39bp |
| 20 Yr | 4.99% | +2bp | +35bp |
| 30 Yr | 4.98% | +2bp | +28bp |

### Key Spreads
- **2s10s spread:** +56bp (4.44% - 3.88%) — steep, positive slope
- **10s30s spread:** +54bp (4.98% - 4.44%) — very steep long end
- **3Mo/10Y spread:** +71bp — no inversion, curve fully normalized

### Curve Shape
The curve is **positively sloped and steepening**. The long end (20Y/30Y near 5.00%) reflects term premium concerns — fiscal deficit fears, rising oil/inflation expectations, and foreign holder uncertainty. The front end remains anchored near the Fed Funds rate. This month alone, the 2Y has risen +41bp — a massive move reflecting markets pricing OUT rate cuts.

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## 🏛️ Fed & Monetary Policy

- **Current Fed Funds Rate:** 3.50-3.75% (after 25bp cut in January 2026)
- **Next FOMC Meeting:** April 28-29, 2026
- **Rate Path:** Markets now pricing ZERO additional cuts in 2026. The 2Y at 3.88% (above the midpoint of the Fed Funds range) suggests the market sees the cut cycle as over.
- **Fed Speakers This Week:** Multiple governors likely; key focus will be on oil-driven inflation risks vs. growth slowdown.
- **Balance Sheet:** QT continuing at $25B/month pace.
- **Key Risk:** Oil above $90 puts the Fed in a bind — inflation pressures rising while growth slows (stagflation risk).

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## 📊 Top 20 Highest Volume Stocks

| Rank | Ticker | Avg Volume | Weekly % | Price |
|------|--------|-----------|----------|-------|
| 1 | NVDA | 174.9M | -4.62% | $167.52 |
| 2 | TQQQ | 113.0M | -12.99% | $38.78 |
| 3 | SPY | 104.2M | -3.25% | $634.09 |
| 4 | INTC | 79.2M | -2.00% | $43.13 |
| 5 | TSLL | 75.3M | -10.73% | $11.56 |
| 6 | QQQ | 74.4M | -4.32% | $562.58 |
| 7 | SMCI | 67.7M | +1.81% | $21.97 |
| 8 | TSLA | 61.4M | -4.99% | $361.83 |
| 9 | SOFI | 57.2M | -11.20% | $15.23 |
| 10 | XLE | 55.9M | +4.91% | $62.56 |
| 11 | SLV | 53.5M | +1.55% | $63.44 |
| 12 | IWM | 52.9M | -1.76% | $243.10 |
| 13 | USO | 51.4M | +12.34% | $124.20 |
| 14 | MU | 51.0M | -11.66% | $357.22 |
| 15 | TLT | 47.8M | -0.87% | $85.64 |
| 16 | PLTR | 46.2M | -11.05% | $143.06 |
| 17 | AMZN | 43.7M | -5.14% | $199.34 |
| 18 | AAPL | 40.8M | -1.07% | $248.80 |
| 19 | AMD | 35.7M | -7.73% | $178.65 |
| 20 | GLD | 28.3M | +2.64% | $414.70 |

**Portfolio overlaps:** NVDA, INTC, TSLA, SOFI, SMCI, MU, PLTR, AMZN, AAPL, AMD, GLD — all in Carlos's portfolios. XLE (energy ETF) confirming the oil bid. SLV and USO getting massive flow.

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## 📰 Newsletter Highlights (Past Week)

### Mauldin Economics
- **TFTF: "Meet the Real Tony Starks"** (3/28) — Mauldin's flagship piece on technology founders and innovation
- **Global Macro Update: "Global Liquidity, Debt, and the Four Horsemen"** (3/27) — Ed D'Agostino on debt dynamics and macro risks
- **SIC 2026: "The Show Must Go On"** (3/28) — Strategic Investment Conference preview
- **Transformative Age: "Continue to hold Lantern Pharma (LTRN)"** (3/30) — hold recommendation
- **Transformative Age: "The Resistant Potato Starch Biohack"** (3/26)
- **Kelly Green: Live Portfolio Walkthrough recording available** (3/27)
- **VIP Week in Review** (3/27)

### David Bahnsen / The Bahnsen Group
- **"FOR CLIENTS ONLY" Weekly Portfolio Holdings Report** (3/25) — new weekly trades/positions
- **Dividend Cafe Friday: "Can the Bull Market Continue?"** (3/27) — key weekly thesis
- **Dividend Cafe Thursday** (3/26) — daily market commentary
- **Dividend Cafe Wednesday** (3/25) — daily market commentary
- **Dividend Cafe Tuesday** (3/24) — daily market commentary

### Seeking Alpha Quant Alerts (Past 7 Days)
| Date | Ticker | Portfolio |
|------|--------|-----------|
| 3/30 | GDS | TOP QUARANTINE |
| 3/30 | ED | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/30 | NBIS | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/30 | EMR | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/27 | GLXY | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/27 | CACI | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/26 | SMR | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/26 | ANET | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/26 | CEG | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/26 | ENS | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/26 | AVAV | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/25 | ENS | FOLLOW THE MONEY |
| 3/24 | ENS | FOLLOW THE MONEY |

**Note:** FOLLOW THE MONEY portfolio is generating the most Quant Alerts. ENS (EnerSys) triggered 3 days in a row. GLXY got an alert but dropped -17% — could be a sell signal.

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## 🔑 Asset Class Performance (Weekly)

| Asset Class | ETF | Weekly % |
|-------------|-----|----------|
| 🛢️ Oil/Energy | USO | **+12.34%** |
| ⛽ Energy Sector | XLE | +4.91% |
| 🥇 Gold | GLD | +2.64% |
| 🥈 Silver | SLV | +1.55% |
| 🌾 Agriculture | DBA | +1.23% |
| 📉 Bonds (Agg) | AGG | -0.49% |
| 📉 Long Bonds | TLT | -0.87% |
| 📉 Small Cap | IWM | -1.76% |
| 📉 Real Estate | VNQ | -2.73% |
| 📉 Dow | DIA | -2.29% |
| 📉 S&P 500 | SPY | -3.25% |
| 📉 Nasdaq | QQQ | -4.32% |
| ₿ Bitcoin | BTC-USD | -1.32% ($67,887) |
| Ξ Ethereum | ETH-USD | +0.65% ($2,073) |

**Winner:** Commodities across the board — oil, gold, silver, agriculture all green. **Loser:** Growth equities, especially Nasdaq. The rotation from risk to real assets accelerated this week.

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## 📰 Portfolio Stock News (Key Headlines)

- **BUR (Burford Capital) -47%** — Catastrophic week. Likely unfavorable court ruling or litigation development. Needs investigation.
- **WYFI (WhiteFiber) -25%** — Speculative data center play continuing to sell off
- **WGS (GeneDx) -21%** — Genomics/biotech weakness
- **APP (AppLovin) -17%** — Continued momentum reversal in ad-tech; short seller concerns persisting
- **COIN (Coinbase) -20%** — Crypto weakness + regulatory overhang
- **MU (Micron) -11.7%** — Memory chip demand concerns despite AI narrative
- **PLTR (Palantir) -11%** — Government spending uncertainty, DOGE cuts fears
- **SOFI (SoFi) -11.2%** — Fintech under pressure as rate cut hopes fade
- **CF Industries +13.5%** — Fertilizer/nitrogen prices surging on energy costs
- **SOC (Sable Offshore) +16.7%** — Oil/offshore E&P benefiting from crude rally

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## 📅 Calendar — This Week

- **Mon 3/30:** Markets open. Schwab margin negotiation call (briefing prepared)
- **Tue 4/1:** ISM Manufacturing PMI
- **Wed 4/2:** Exponential Connections - Session A (10:00 AM ET), Session B (6:30 PM ET)
- **Thu 4/3:** ISM Services PMI, Jobless Claims
- **Fri 4/4:** Non-Farm Payrolls (March 2026) — BIG ONE for the week
- **Apr 28-29:** Next FOMC Meeting

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## 📋 Summary & Outlook

**The week ahead is LOADED.** NFP on Friday is the headline risk — a strong number kills remaining rate cut hopes, a weak one could spark recession fears. Either way, oil above $90 is the elephant in the room.

**Positioning observations:**
- Energy is working → Carlos's FOLLOW THE MONEY portfolio has significant energy/LNG exposure (NEXT +12.8%, VG +11%, CF +13.5%)
- Gold holding → GOLD portfolio benefiting from safe-haven flows
- Tech getting hit → LORING WC and QUARANTINE taking pain (NVDA, META, AMZN all red)
- Income/BDCs → TOP CBS holding up relatively well (ARCC, HTGC, BDCs flat to slightly down)
- Crypto weakness → BTC -1.3%, COIN -20%, MSTR -8.3% — risk-off mode

**Key levels to watch:**
- S&P 500: 5,600 support (currently ~5,590)
- 10Y yield: 4.50% resistance
- WTI Crude: $95 next resistance
- Gold: $4,500 next target
- VIX: Above 30 = danger zone (currently 29.79)

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*Report generated Monday, March 30, 2026 at 9:17 AM ET*
*Data source: Yahoo Finance, US Treasury, Gmail*