# Quant Models Daily Trade Report — 2026-04-13 (Monday)

## MARKET CONTEXT
🛢️ **Hormuz Blockade Day 1** — US Navy blockading Strait of Hormuz since 10 AM ET.
Oil surging: WTI ~$104, Brent ~$102. Iran-US ceasefire fragile. Trump threatens China 50% tariffs.
Energy outperforming massively. Tech under pressure. Gold volatile on geopolitical risk.

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## Summary

| Metric | Model A (Carlos Portfolio) | Model B (Global Universe) |
|--------|---------------------------|--------------------------|
| NAV | $2,209,568.58 | $1,415,408.10 |
| Daily P&L | +$215,008.51 (+10.78%) | +$38,075.07 (+2.76%) |
| Total Return | +120.96% | +41.54% |
| Long Positions | 25 | 30 |
| Short Positions | 5 | 8 |
| Cash | $921,780.05 | $550,473.75 |
| Trades Today | 41 | 31 |

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## Model A — Carlos's Portfolio Universe (186 tickers scored)

### Top 5 Scores
| Ticker | Score |
|--------|-------|
| SU | 88.81 |
| NEXT | 82.00 |
| AMAT | 80.00 |
| GEV | 80.00 |
| ARM | 77.00 |

### Sells / Covers (Exits) — 11 trades
| Action | Ticker | Shares | Price | P&L |
|--------|--------|--------|-------|-----|
| SELL | XOM | 418 | $152.64 | -$3,820.23 |
| SELL | ERX | 359 | $89.28 | -$3,378.26 |
| SELL | KLAC | 36 | $1,768.78 | +$7,053.79 |
| COVER | TMC | 18,686 | $4.62 | +$1,401.45 |
| SELL | OFSTF | 91,034 | $0.70 | +$309.52 |
| COVER | GDXU | 166 | $247.05 | -$585.98 |
| SELL | CRWV | 625 | $110.27 | +$5,168.75 |
| SELL | MU | 151 | $426.56 | +$901.47 |
| SELL | GILD | 463 | $139.03 | +$22.59 |
| SELL | ED | 562 | $111.89 | -$938.54 |
| COVER | AREC | 36,643 | $2.15 | +$1,648.93 |

**Exit P&L: +$7,783.49**

### Buys (New/Added Longs) — 25 trades
| Ticker | Shares | Price | Cost | Score |
|--------|--------|-------|------|-------|
| SU | 99 | $64.84 | $6,419.16 | 88.81 |
| NEXT | 914 | $7.53 | $6,882.42 | 82.00 |
| AMAT | 18 | $395.73 | $7,123.14 | 80.00 |
| GEV | 7 | $991.12 | $6,937.84 | 80.00 |
| ARM | 19 | $157.58 | $2,994.02 | 77.00 |
| VRT | 19 | $299.96 | $5,699.24 | 77.00 |
| EOG | 47 | $136.96 | $6,437.12 | 74.35 |
| EQIX | 4 | $1,056.84 | $4,227.36 | 73.96 |
| JNJ | 30 | $237.96 | $7,138.80 | 72.97 |
| ANET | 465 | $152.02 | $70,689.30 | 71.58 |
| HWM | 276 | $256.14 | $70,694.64 | 71.34 |
| ASML | 4 | $1,500.20 | $6,000.80 | 70.84 |
| UMI | 134 | $56.90 | $7,624.60 | 70.76 |
| ENS | 29 | $194.61 | $5,643.69 | 69.73 |
| EIX | 133 | $72.39 | $9,627.87 | 69.66 |
| TLT | 77 | $86.75 | $6,679.75 | 69.35 |
| BWXT | 303 | $232.83 | $70,547.49 | 69.04 |
| LNG | 30 | $261.60 | $7,848.00 | 68.70 |
| ASTS | 714 | $98.97 | $70,664.58 | 68.60 |
| ADI | 20 | $350.01 | $7,000.20 | 68.08 |
| MRK | 588 | $120.15 | $70,648.20 | 68.04 |
| DUK | 542 | $130.40 | $70,676.80 | 67.87 |
| ALB | 381 | $185.43 | $70,648.83 | 67.22 |
| NBIS | 10 | $154.56 | $1,545.60 | 67.00 |
| SOXL | 438 | $80.56 | $35,285.28 | 67.00 |

### New Shorts — 5 trades
| Ticker | Shares | Price | Score |
|--------|--------|-------|-------|
| AXON | 245 | $359.63 | 20.00 |
| TEAM | 1,441 | $61.30 | 20.00 |
| TTD | 4,165 | $21.22 | 20.00 |
| GROY | 2,066 | $3.69 | 18.46 |
| SMR | 552 | $9.58 | 17.00 |

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## Model B — Global Universe (152 tickers scored)

### Top 5 Scores
| Ticker | Score |
|--------|-------|
| SU | 88.81 |
| EWY | 80.00 |
| AMAT | 80.00 |
| VLO | 79.88 |
| EWT | 75.00 |

### Sells / Covers (Exits) — 8 trades
| Action | Ticker | Shares | Price | P&L |
|--------|--------|--------|-------|-----|
| SELL | XOM | 243 | $152.64 | -$2,724.18 |
| SELL | LIN | 74 | $508.87 | +$969.61 |
| SELL | ERX | 206 | $89.28 | -$2,541.11 |
| COVER | GDXU | 72 | $247.05 | -$30.24 |
| SELL | TBT | 532 | $34.87 | -$143.64 |
| SELL | WFC | 441 | $86.64 | +$851.13 |
| SELL | JPM | 121 | $313.68 | +$763.51 |
| SELL | YANG | 649 | $27.84 | -$629.53 |

**Exit P&L: -$3,484.45**

### Buys (New/Added Longs) — 20 trades
| Ticker | Shares | Price | Cost | Score |
|--------|--------|-------|------|-------|
| SU | 10 | $64.84 | $648.40 | 88.81 |
| VLO | 2 | $242.08 | $484.16 | 79.88 |
| OXY | 16 | $58.06 | $928.96 | 75.31 |
| SLB | 14 | $51.92 | $726.88 | 75.27 |
| EOG | 6 | $136.96 | $821.76 | 74.35 |
| DBA | 15 | $26.93 | $403.95 | 73.46 |
| COP | 6 | $123.62 | $741.72 | 73.02 |
| JNJ | 1 | $237.96 | $237.96 | 72.97 |
| MPC | 2 | $225.29 | $450.58 | 71.81 |
| TLT | 3 | $86.75 | $260.25 | 69.35 |
| LNG | 6 | $261.60 | $1,569.60 | 68.70 |
| MRK | 314 | $120.15 | $37,727.10 | 68.04 |
| DBC | 15 | $28.96 | $434.40 | 67.78 |
| KO | 493 | $76.41 | $37,670.13 | 67.28 |
| DLR | 196 | $191.85 | $37,602.60 | 67.05 |
| LHX | 105 | $357.95 | $37,584.75 | 66.92 |
| GILD | 1 | $139.03 | $139.03 | 66.92 |
| BRK-B | 78 | $480.19 | $37,454.82 | 66.68 |
| GS | 42 | $890.79 | $37,413.18 | 66.64 |
| SCHW | 389 | $96.79 | $37,651.31 | 66.49 |

### New/Maintained Shorts — 3 trades
| Ticker | Shares | Price | Score |
|--------|--------|-------|-------|
| CRM | 204 | $172.82 | 25.69 |
| DUST | 9 | $43.54 | 22.53 |
| SOXS | 51 | $22.42 | 17.00 |

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## Key Regime Signals & Notable Moves

### Theme: Energy Rotation + Major Portfolio Rebalance
- **SU remains #1 in BOTH models** (score 88.81, up from 87.83) — Suncor benefiting from Hormuz-driven oil
- **Model A massive rebalance:** 41 trades — full portfolio refresh. Exited XOM, ERX, MU, ED. Added ANET, HWM, ASTS, BWXT, ALB, DUK, MRK in size
- **KLAC exit was the day's best trade:** +$7,053 on 36 shares — semiconductor profit-taking
- **CRWV sold for +$5,168** — took profits on the crypto infrastructure play
- **Model A shorts reshuffled entirely:** Covered TMC (+$1,401), AREC (+$1,648), GDXU (-$586). New shorts: AXON, TEAM, TTD, GROY, SMR — all low-score tech/speculative
- **Model B rotated out of banks:** Sold WFC (+$851), JPM (+$764) after last week's buy — quick flip
- **Model B dumped YANG** (China inverse) — trade war bet unwound at a -$630 loss
- **Model B added defensives:** KO, BRK-B, JNJ, GILD, DUK, SCHW — clear risk-off tilt
- **Commodities heavy in both:** DBA, DBC, LNG, SU, EOG, VLO, COP, SLB, OXY — Hormuz pricing in
- **TLT (bonds) bought in both models** — flight to safety alongside energy
- **SOXL long + SOXS short** in respective models — semi bullish overall despite volatility
- **Model A now above $2.2M** (+121% total) — monster day at +10.78%
- **Combined portfolio NAV: $3,624,976.68** — up $253K today

### Risk Flags
- 🚨 Model A cash at 42% ($921K) — high cash suggests model is cautious despite big positions
- ⚠️ ERX (3x energy bull) sold at a loss in both models despite oil surge — score-based rotation trumped the energy thesis
- ⚠️ XOM sold in both models — may be rotating from integrated oils → E&P names (EOG, SU, OXY)